The analysis of a Bundesliga match for potential sports bets is usually based on the same criteria, except when the motivation factor is one-sided in the final phase of the season. Friendly matches must be analyzed according to completely different criteria. Use these criterias next time you are on 22Bet.
In this article, we will reveal how to analyze friendly matches correctly. Specifically, it is about finding out the uncertain factors. For example, which players will be on the pitch, as a friendly match does not necessarily involve the best team.
Assessing friendly matches correctly for sports betting: Analysis criteria
First of all, realize that an analysis for a supposed test match is completely different from that for a regular Bundesliga match. It is useless to look at “head to head” statistics. Injured players should also be given much less importance. The special factor of motivation, which is particularly important in the final phase of every season, is difficult to research from the outside in at least 90 percent of games. Only those who can throw the essential points of a conventional analysis overboard will be able to earn money with friendly matches.
It should be noted that friendly matches are much more difficult to calculate than a competitive match in the league. What might seem frustrating at first glance is actually a great opportunity. In the Bundesliga, the bookmaker is very difficult to beat – but for games in front of around 300 spectators and with teams that don’t know each other from a league, many bookmakers are overwhelmed. Of course, not every match is a real chance, but with 10-20 test matches a day, a nice gift should almost always be offered involuntarily by the provider. Here is a brief overview of the key points of a friendly match analysis:
The state of preparation: teams are stronger when the season starts soon
The first point should immediately become a potentially overwhelming advantage over the betting provider, who often only quote by name. Arsenal are known to be stronger than the club from Nuremberg and Manchester United should be able to beat HSV. That’s right, in a European Cup match you could hardly deny the English representatives the role of favorites. In preparation, however, this way of thinking would be fatal for your own tip. As is the case every year, the English league starts the new season very late, as the lack of a winter break allows many match days to be made up. Often, the top English teams have only just come back from vacation, while their opponents are already in full swing.
The ideal case would be matches between English clubs and teams from Germany’s 3rd Bundesliga. Due to the strength of the league with 20 teams, the 3rd Bundesliga starts earlier than almost any other division, so that the clubs from the 3rd division will be much further into the game rhythm than potential opponents from the island.
In previous years, this phenomenon was exploited in many matches. Back then, a particularly large number of clubs from the island came to Germany to escape the Olympic Games. Newcastle lost their first friendly match in Chemnitz without any passion. Dynamo Dresden defeated West Ham United, among others. Supposedly big surprises could very well have been anticipated before the first kick-off, as there were almost five weeks between the start of the leagues involved. Deliberately look for friendly matches in which the clubs involved are at different points in their pre-season preparations and bet against the club that still feels almost on vacation, provided the other factors are also promising.
